What's real?

[Newman]

It's no secret Hillary's polls are slipping, and "outliers" are getting more common, like this one today, Hillary Clinton, Donald Trump Are Tied In Latest IBD/TIPP Poll. Meanwhile, we get stories like this one today as well, admittedly from a Hillary-friendly site, Clinton’s advisers tell her to prep for a landslide.

The "enthusiasm gap" is enormous and consistent. Hillary can only dream of a full house wherever she goes, much less the cheering fans we heard at Trump's immigration speech the other night, for one example.

One the other hand, Clinton has the organization and the money, ironically. In swing states like FL she has dozens on offices where Trump has less than a handful.

So is the Politico story merely propaganda? Whistling past bad news? Or are the Trump indicators an echo of the Romney delusions that led to the firing of Dick Morris from FOX News, for another one example.

November seems so close and yet so far. I'm reminded of a swim meet I was in as a child, a long freestyle event. I led (or nearly led) the field of a dozen swimmers for about 6 of the 8 laps, but then my body just hit a wall. Making the last two laps was torture, and I finished almost last.

Can Hillary run out the clock, or will she die in these final laps? Is she the Democrat version of Jeb Bush? Is this a "change" election, or a French version, plus ça change, plus c'est la même chose?

[scott]

It's no secret Hillary's polls are slipping, and "outliers" are getting more common, like this one today, Hillary Clinton, Donald Trump Are Tied In Latest IBD/TIPP Poll. Meanwhile, we get stories like this one today as well, admittedly from a Hillary-friendly site, Clinton’s advisers tell her to prep for a landslide.

The "enthusiasm gap" is enormous and consistent. Hillary can only dream of a full house wherever she goes, much less the cheering fans we heard at Trump's immigration speech the other night, for one example.

One the other hand, Clinton has the organization and the money, ironically. In swing states like FL she has dozens on offices where Trump has less than a handful.

So is the Politico story merely propaganda? Whistling past bad news? Or are the Trump indicators an echo of the Romney delusions that led to the firing of Dick Morris from FOX News, for another one example.

November seems so close and yet so far. I'm reminded of a swim meet I was in as a child, a long freestyle event. I led (or nearly led) the field of a dozen swimmers for about 6 of the 8 laps, but then my body just hit a wall. Making the last two laps was torture, and I finished almost last.

Can Hillary run out the clock, or will she die in these final laps? Is she the Democrat version of Jeb Bush? Is this a "change" election, or a French version, plus ça change, plus c'est la même chose?

Turnout of different demographics is the most difficult to predict and that's what this election hinges on. I also think that most Democrats are single issue voters so they'll vote for Hillary on that basis alone. I don't think it'll be a landslide but I don't think Trump can win.

[Norm dePlume]

Yeah, it's a real sea change, there.

[Michele]

It's no secret Hillary's polls are slipping, and "outliers" are getting more common, like this one today, Hillary Clinton, Donald Trump Are Tied In Latest IBD/TIPP Poll. Meanwhile, we get stories like this one today as well, admittedly from a Hillary-friendly site, Clinton’s advisers tell her to prep for a landslide.

The "enthusiasm gap" is enormous and consistent. Hillary can only dream of a full house wherever she goes, much less the cheering fans we heard at Trump's immigration speech the other night, for one example.

One the other hand, Clinton has the organization and the money, ironically. In swing states like FL she has dozens on offices where Trump has less than a handful.

So is the Politico story merely propaganda? Whistling past bad news? Or are the Trump indicators an echo of the Romney delusions that led to the firing of Dick Morris from FOX News, for another one example.

November seems so close and yet so far. I'm reminded of a swim meet I was in as a child, a long freestyle event. I led (or nearly led) the field of a dozen swimmers for about 6 of the 8 laps, but then my body just hit a wall. Making the last two laps was torture, and I finished almost last.

Can Hillary run out the clock, or will she die in these final laps? Is she the Democrat version of Jeb Bush? Is this a "change" election, or a French version, plus ça change, plus c'est la même chose?

Once bitten, twice shy. I doubt it will be a landslide but she will win. Obama's taking the whole month of October off to campaign for his legacy aka the Clinton agenda. He's the highest he's been in polls for a while so I'm guessing the messiah will help her.

1) Trump is behind and there's no way he can close the gap...and time has nothing to do with it...it's him. Most any republican back in the primaries would be ahead of Clinton at this point. But people voted for him because...change!...no, that was Obama. Because...he speaks what's on his mind! Yes, that was it!...and it's worked so well for him.

2) You can't be close in an election with a Clinton because it's not going to turn out in your favor. They're corrupt and will go to any means to get and retain power...enough said.

3) Remember when Trump said he could shoot somebody and he wouldn't lose voters? That has proven false for him but true for Clinton. Trump has two things going against him; he's a terrible Candidate and Hillary voters will vote for her no matter what.

It would be nice to see the media do their jobs and pound on her in newscasts and editorials to have a press conference but at this late date, I don't think they really care. They're as scared as she is about her opening her mouth.

[Newman]

Once bitten, twice shy. I doubt it will be a landslide but she will win. Obama's taking the whole month of October off to campaign for his legacy aka the Clinton agenda. He's the highest he's been in polls for a while so I'm guessing the messiah will help her.

1) Trump is behind and there's no way he can close the gap...and time has nothing to do with it...it's him. Most any republican back in the primaries would be ahead of Clinton at this point. But people voted for him because...change!...no, that was Obama. Because...he speaks what's on his mind! Yes, that was it!...and it's worked so well for him.

All of those competing nominee wannabes had their chance, and none galvanized a winning coalition. Without it, could any fare better than Romney in the fall? Could Jeb mobilize a national army when he couldn't organize a dedicated brigade among those already registered to sign up?

If the answer to that is no, then the election was won by the Democrats years ago.

2) You can't be close in an election with a Clinton because it's not going to turn out in your favor. They're corrupt and will go to any means to get and retain power...enough said.

3) Remember when Trump said he could shoot somebody and he wouldn't lose voters? That has proven false for him but true for Clinton. Trump has two things going against him; he's a terrible Candidate and Hillary voters will vote for her no matter what.

Both candidates have die-hard supporters and die-hard opponents. The "enthusiasm gap" tells me his die-hard supporters outnumber hers, but that number isn't enough to win, to your point.

It would be nice to see the media do their jobs and pound on her in newscasts and editorials to have a press conference but at this late date, I don't think they really care. They're as scared as she is about her opening her mouth.

The media see themselves as more than mere reporters. Their responsibility is to persuade, to prevent creeping fascism or conservatism (the same thing) from impeding the progress of liberal ideology.

There are also factors that favor the Donald, including mostly the remarkable facts about Hillary. She is far and away the most odious candidate nominated in a century and a half, at least, by either major party. Her campaign is a pure, genuine test of machine over popular will, money over common sense, legacy over merit.

You and others seem certain she will win. I think it's likely, but not certain at all. If any Democrat can lose, it's her.

[Frostbit]

1) Trump is behind and there's no way he can close the gap...and time has nothing to do with it...it's him.

Don't count on it.

[Gingersnap]

Clinton's team, the WH, and the media are largely assuming that this election is pretty much like any election. They are using the playbook that has worked well in the past.

I'm not really sure that this election is like that.

Elections like this aren't won by the parties, they're won by the swing-voters. Both candidates are polarizing but for different reasons. Clinton will double-down on Obama's policies, she'll continue to make bad deals with other nations, and she'll continue to seed government agencies with power-mad bureaucrats. There will be more lies, more cover-ups, and more mistrust. She'll use her Supreme Court picks for her agenda and she'll absolutely use that 'pen/phone' strategy to hammer through whatever she wants.

Trump is an unknown. He doesn't have a track record in Beltway politics. However, he's talking about things most middle-class Americans care about: stagnant wages, over-regulation, taxation, enforcing immigration law, putting American interests first in trade negotiations, and he seems to genuinely like Americans.

Public trust in government, politicians, the media, and academia are at historic lows. Most people have no particular faith in experienced and reliable political pundits from either side. The middle-class is factually shrinking and people have noticed. These are new things to current potential voters.

So, this election isn't really like any election in living memory including Reagan's 1980 election or the 1964 election.

[Lady Marva]

have die-hard supporters and die-hard opponents. The "enthusiasm gap" tells me his die-hard supporters outnumber hers, but that number isn't enough to win, to your point. The media see themselves as more than mere reporters. Their responsibility is to persuade, to prevent creeping fascism or conservatism (the same thing) from impeding the progress of liberal ideology.

There are also factors that favor the Donald, including mostly the remarkable facts about Hillary. She is far and away the most odious candidate nominated in a century and a half, at least, by either major party. Her campaign is a pure, genuine test of machine over popular will, money over common sense, legacy over merit.

You and others seem certain she will win. I think it's likely, but not certain at all. If any Democrat can lose, it's her.

Agree. We must remember the media isn't to be trusted. So who knows if they're right or wrong.........

[Djharkavy]

Sounds like 2012 all over again, except this time, they don't want to admit to voting for Trump instead of they don't want to admit that they aren't viewing for Obama (therefore gaining the label of racist, of course.)


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[Michele]

It's not 2012 or anything close to it. The two worst candidates either the republicans or democrats could've nominated are running for president.

[Djharkavy]

It's not 2012 or anything close to it. The two worst candidates either the republicans or democrats could've nominated are running for president.

I meant the denial of the current polling, not the candidate choices.

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[Michele]

they don't want to admit to voting for Trump

They don't want to admit to voting for Clinton.

[Djharkavy]

They don't want to admit to voting for Clinton.

Probably true as well, but I was addressing the idea above that the polling doesn't reflect reality and Trump is really winning.

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All mistakes are caused by the phone.
That's my story and I'm sticking to it...

[Frostbit]

“The first debate is pivotal for Clinton if she’s going to arrest this drip and recover,” said Geoffrey Skelley, a polling analyst for University of Virginia’s Center for Politics. “If she doesn’t, then this race stays on a knife’s edge. It’s gone from being unlikely that Trump could win, to a slightly uphill climb for him.”

[80zephyr]

Polling showed Brexit wasn't gonna happen either...until it did.

Mark